Although most research finds that concealed carry reduces violent crime, several recent studies claim to show that concealed carry increases violent crime.
In a new study linked here, Professors Lott and Moody analyze three possible causes for the supposed increase, and then show that concealed carry is not promoting these putative causes.
I majored in Econ a long time ago, but their math is beyond me. I will do my best to summarize the findings and simply note in passing a few grammatical errors which is about all i’m qualified to criticize.
The authors use improved math, taking into account substantial differences in actual prevalence of concealed carry among the various states allowing right-to-carry in various degrees, to show there is no evidence of concealed carry causing a sudden increase in criminality among those who carry, or an increase of firearm theft, or a reduction in law enforcement effectiveness:
While permit holders may be committing crime, there is evidence that concealed carry permit
holders are, in fact, quite law-abiding. In the 19 states with comprehensive data, the average
revocation rate for any reason is one-tenth of 1%.1 Typically, permit revocations occur because
someone moved, died, or forgot to bring a permit while carrying. In Florida and Texas, permit
holders are convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.
Data on reckless driving is available from the Michigan State Police, over the five years from
2012 to 2016, non-permit holders are 2.4 times more likely than permit holders to drive drunk.2
They are 34.1 times more likely to drive under the influence of a controlled substance and 10.6
times more likely to drive recklessly. Non-permit holders were 12.2 times more likely to be
convicted of one of these violations.
Texas released 2016 data on the rate of reckless driving by permit holders but not for other
drivers in the state.3 While the comparison is only suggestive because enforcement rates vary
across states, Michigan non-permit holders are three times more likely to drive recklessly than
Texas permit holders.
Regarding permit holders reducing the effectiveness of police, it is not a view held by police.
When PoliceOne asked its 450,000 law enforcement members in 2013 about the effects of
private gun ownership, 4 76% of officers answered that legally armed citizens are either very or
extremely important in reducing crime. When asked “Do you support arming civilians who have not
been convicted of a felony and/or not been deemed psychologically/medically incapable?”
91.3% answered “yes, without question and without further restrictions.” The National
Association of Chiefs of Police have also done a series of surveys from 2009 to 2016 which
shows consistently about 76% of police chiefs state “yes” that “qualified, law-abiding armed
citizens help law enforcement reduce violent criminal activity.”
The authors also note that stolen guns play only a minor role in crime, and there is no evidence that concealed carry leads to increased theft of firearms beyond what is attributable to general burglary.
