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John Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center recently compiled evidence (here) showing that the FBI is massively understating the number of active shooter incidents that are stopped by private armed citizens. Dr Lott points to systemic reasons why this might be happening (bureaucratic incompetence, mistakes by contract researcher, dearth of media coverage, and inadequate law enforcement reporting requirements), but also states that FBI refused to make corrections he proposed after serving at FBI during the Trump Administration. The latter point indicates that perhaps these are not errors but actually a pattern of fraud that deserves prosecution, along with other FBI dirty tricks but special because this type of misinformation affects policy in a way that costs lives.

I encourage you to read CPRC’s full post but i will summarize/paraphrase here:

  • FBI reports civilians stopped 4.6% of active shooter attacks from 2014-2022, but the correct number is at least 35.7% over that period, and at least 51% outside “gun-free” zones during that period.
  • For 2022, the number is at least 41.3%, and if you exclude “gun-free” zones, the number is at least 63.5%.
  • The percentage could be much higher given shoddy and inadequate media coverage, especially as you go back in time.
  • Media reports that such defensive gun use instances are rare, are fake news relying on fake research.
  • Media reports that defensive gun use by private armed citizen is dangerous to bystanders is also fake news, because there has never been a reported instance of a bystander being hit during such a defensive gun use. Also, there is only one known case of police shooting the hero citizen (Colorado, a couple years ago).
  • Surveys show that among both criminologists and economists support is high for arming teachers and eliminating “gun-free” zones.
  • Polls show strong majority support for arming teachers, and a strong plurality views armed citizens as the best defense in mass shootings.
  • A survey of law enforcement showed 86% agreed private armed citizens would reduce or eliminate casualties in mass shootings.

Again, check CPRC’s post here for full evidence and supporting links.

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